FC Cincinnati vs DC United: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes FC Cincinnati the pick at 70% for FC Cincinnati vs DC United. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
DC United travel to FC Cincinnati on 21 October 2026 at TQL Stadium, Cincinnati. FC Cincinnati are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 70%. This matchday 23 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as FC Cincinnati - DC United. Kick-off is 23:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
FC Cincinnati: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (58 scored and 50 conceded in 25 matches, 2.32 and 2.0 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.7 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -8.
DC United: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (19 scored and 19 conceded in 16 matches, 1.19 and 1.19 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.9 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -11.
Side by side
| Statistic | FC Cincinnati | DC United |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 12th |
| Goal difference | -8 | -11 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLDD | WLLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 12 | 6 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 25 | 16 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.32 / 2.0 | 1.19 / 1.19 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.6 | 1.31 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 39.7 | 38.9 |
| Players unavailable | 4 | 4 |
| Model win probability | 70% | 5% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 3 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): FC Cincinnati three wins, DC United two wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: FC Cincinnati 1-2 DC United on 31 May 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the six — broadly an average game for goals.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 31%.
- First goal: Leans FC Cincinnati's way at 78%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards FC Cincinnati at 70%, a gap of 45 percentage points to the next outcome. FC Cincinnati's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts FC Cincinnati's way, especially at TQL Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC Cincinnati or DC United?
FC Cincinnati, with an implied win probability of roughly 70%. The full split is 70% FC Cincinnati, 25% the draw and 5% DC United.
When and where is FC Cincinnati vs DC United being played?
21 October 2026 at TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, kick-off 23:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between FC Cincinnati and DC United?
FC Cincinnati 1-2 DC United on 31 May 2025.
What is the recent form of FC Cincinnati and DC United?
FC Cincinnati have taken 5 points from their last five (LWLDD), DC United 4 from theirs (WLLDL). Most recently FC Cincinnati took a 2-3 defeat at home to New England Revolution and DC United a 2-1 win at home to New York Red Bulls.
How many goals are expected in FC Cincinnati vs DC United?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.20 for FC Cincinnati and 1.20 for DC United. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 31%, so its call is no.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists four players unavailable for FC Cincinnati and four for DC United at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.