FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte match summary and prediction — Major League Soccer
Our model makes a draw the pick at 47% for FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
FC Cincinnati host Charlotte on 12 September 2026 at TQL Stadium, Cincinnati. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 47%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 25 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as FC Cincinnati - Charlotte. Kick-off is 23:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
FC Cincinnati: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and one draw before that. That is one win, one draw and two defeats from the last four, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (49 scored and 39 conceded in 20 matches, 2.45 and 1.95 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.9 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of -7.
Charlotte: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 14 conceded in 14 matches, 1.29 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 63.9 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +9.
Comparison data
| Statistic | FC Cincinnati | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 5th |
| Goal difference | -7 | +9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDW | WDWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 11 | 10 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 20 | 14 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.45 / 1.95 | 1.29 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.65 | 1.57 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 39.9 | 63.9 |
| Players unavailable | 4 | 8 |
| Model win probability | 37% | 16% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 1 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): FC Cincinnati one win, Charlotte two wins, three draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Charlotte 2-2 FC Cincinnati on 09 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.17 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in four of the six — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: FC Cincinnati 39.9 versus Charlotte 63.9, a gap of 24.0, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: Charlotte carry the heavier absentee list, eight players to four.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 20% and both teams to score at 39%.
- First goal: Leans FC Cincinnati's way at 64%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Charlotte's stronger recent metrics back it, the goals line points to under 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC Cincinnati or Charlotte?
Neither side. Our model splits it 37% FC Cincinnati, 47% the draw and 16% Charlotte, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte being played?
12 September 2026 at TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, kick-off 23:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between FC Cincinnati and Charlotte?
Charlotte 2-2 FC Cincinnati on 09 May 2026.
What is the recent form of FC Cincinnati and Charlotte?
FC Cincinnati have taken 4 points from their last four (LLDW), Charlotte 11 from theirs (WDWWD). Most recently FC Cincinnati took a 0-5 defeat away at Philadelphia Union and Charlotte a 2-1 win away at CF Montreal.
How many goals are expected in FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.20 for FC Cincinnati and 1.20 for Charlotte. It rates over 2.5 goals at 20%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 39%, so its call is no.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists four players unavailable for FC Cincinnati and eight for Charlotte at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.