FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes FC Dallas the pick at 69% for FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Portland Timbers travel to FC Dallas on 13 September 2026 at Toyota Stadium, Frisco. FC Dallas are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 69%. This matchday 25 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as FC Dallas - Portland Timbers. Kick-off is 00:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
FC Dallas: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (24 scored and 20 conceded in 13 matches, 1.85 and 1.54 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.8 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +6.
Portland Timbers: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (23 scored and 27 conceded in 14 matches, 1.64 and 1.93 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.9 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +1.
Side by side
| Statistic | FC Dallas | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 8th |
| Goal difference | +6 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDLW | DWLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 13 / 15 | 12 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 13 | 14 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.85 / 1.54 | 1.64 / 1.93 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.62 | 0.93 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 59.8 | 51.9 |
| Players unavailable | 10 | 10 |
| Model win probability | 69% | 4% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 5): FC Dallas one win, Portland Timbers one win, three draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Portland Timbers 2-2 FC Dallas on 28 September 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.4 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the five — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: FC Dallas 59.8 versus Portland Timbers 51.9, a gap of 7.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 11% and both teams to score at 31%.
- First goal: Leans FC Dallas' way at 78%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards FC Dallas at 69%, a gap of 42 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts FC Dallas's way, especially at Toyota Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC Dallas or Portland Timbers?
FC Dallas, with an implied win probability of roughly 69%. The full split is 69% FC Dallas, 27% the draw and 4% Portland Timbers.
When and where is FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers being played?
13 September 2026 at Toyota Stadium, Frisco, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between FC Dallas and Portland Timbers?
Portland Timbers 2-2 FC Dallas on 28 September 2025.
What is the recent form of FC Dallas and Portland Timbers?
FC Dallas have taken 10 points from their last five (WWDLW), Portland Timbers 8 from theirs (DWLDW). Most recently FC Dallas took a 2-1 win away at Minnesota United FC and Portland Timbers a 2-2 draw at home to St. Louis City.
How many goals are expected in FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 0.80 for FC Dallas and 1.00 for Portland Timbers. It rates over 2.5 goals at 11%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 31%, so its call is no.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists ten players unavailable for FC Dallas and ten for Portland Timbers at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.