FC Dallas vs Austin: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes FC Dallas the pick at 73% for FC Dallas vs Austin. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
FC Dallas face Austin on 20 September 2026 at Toyota Stadium, Frisco. FC Dallas are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 73%. This matchday 26 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as FC Dallas - Austin. Kick-off is 00:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
FC Dallas: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (24 scored and 20 conceded in 13 matches, 1.85 and 1.54 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.1 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +7.
Austin: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 28 conceded in 13 matches, 1.15 and 2.15 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.0 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -12.
Comparison data
| Statistic | FC Dallas | Austin |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 13th |
| Goal difference | +7 | -12 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWDL | WDDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 13 | 6 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 13 | 13 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.85 / 1.54 | 1.15 / 2.15 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.62 | 0.77 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 60.1 | 52.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 73% | 4% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 5 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): FC Dallas five wins, Austin two wins, one draw — an edge to FC Dallas.
- Most recent meeting: FC Dallas 2-0 Austin on 14 September 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.38 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in four of the eight — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: FC Dallas 60.1 versus Austin 52.0, a gap of 8.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.60, over 2.5 goals at 10% and both teams to score at 28%.
- First goal: Leans FC Dallas' way at 80%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards FC Dallas at 73%, a gap of 49 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts FC Dallas's way, especially at Toyota Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC Dallas or Austin?
FC Dallas, with an implied win probability of roughly 73%. The full split is 73% FC Dallas, 24% the draw and 4% Austin.
When and where is FC Dallas vs Austin being played?
20 September 2026 at Toyota Stadium, Frisco, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between FC Dallas and Austin?
FC Dallas 2-0 Austin on 14 September 2025.
What is the recent form of FC Dallas and Austin?
FC Dallas have taken 10 points from their last five (WWWDL), Austin 8 from theirs (WDDWL). Most recently FC Dallas took a 2-1 win at home to Portland Timbers and Austin a 2-1 win away at Vancouver Whitecaps.
How many goals are expected in FC Dallas vs Austin?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.60 — 0.80 for FC Dallas and 0.80 for Austin. It rates over 2.5 goals at 10%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 28%, so its call is no.