St. Louis City vs Toronto FC — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes St. Louis City the pick at 62% for St. Louis City vs Toronto FC. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Toronto FC travel to St. Louis City on 20 September 2026 at CITYPARK, Saint Louis. St. Louis City are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 62%. This matchday 26 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as St. Louis City - Toronto FC. Kick-off is 00:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
St. Louis City: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 21 conceded in 15 matches, 1.2 and 1.4 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 63.4 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +7.
Toronto FC: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two draws before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 21 conceded in 14 matches, 1.29 and 1.5 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.7 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -8.
Side by side
| Statistic | St. Louis City | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 12th |
| Goal difference | +7 | -8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWDW | LWDDW |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 14 / 9 | 9 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 15 | 14 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1.29 / 1.5 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.33 | 1.07 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 63.4 | 49.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 62% | 7% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: St. Louis City 63.4 versus Toronto FC 49.7, a gap of 13.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 29% and both teams to score at 22%.
- First goal: Leans St. Louis City's way at 78%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards St. Louis City at 62%, a gap of 30 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts St. Louis City's way, especially at CITYPARK.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: St. Louis City or Toronto FC?
St. Louis City, with an implied win probability of roughly 62%. The full split is 62% St. Louis City, 32% the draw and 7% Toronto FC.
When and where is St. Louis City vs Toronto FC being played?
20 September 2026 at CITYPARK, Saint Louis, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between St. Louis City and Toronto FC?
Toronto FC 0-1 St. Louis City on 08 July 2023.
What is the recent form of St. Louis City and Toronto FC?
St. Louis City have taken 11 points from their last five (WDWDW), Toronto FC 8 from theirs (LWDDW). Most recently St. Louis City took a 4-2 win at home to Minnesota United FC and Toronto FC a 0-3 defeat away at Orlando City SC.
How many goals are expected in St. Louis City vs Toronto FC?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 2.00 for St. Louis City and 1.00 for Toronto FC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 29%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 22%, so its call is no.