Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Columbus Crew the pick at 58% for Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Columbus Crew host Toronto FC on 24 October 2026 at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field, Columbus. Columbus Crew are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 58%. This matchday 31 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as Columbus Crew - Toronto FC. Kick-off is 19:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Columbus Crew: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 22 conceded in 20 matches, 1.35 and 1.1 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 64.8 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -1.
Toronto FC: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 30 conceded in 18 matches, 1.39 and 1.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.1 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -9.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Columbus Crew | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 10th |
| Goal difference | -1 | -9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWLW | WDWLL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 5 | 8 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 20 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.35 / 1.1 | 1.39 / 1.67 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.35 | 1.11 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 64.8 | 46.1 |
| Players unavailable | 6 | 6 |
| Model win probability | 58% | 21% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 7) | 4 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 7): Columbus Crew four wins, Toronto FC one win, two draws — an edge to Columbus Crew.
- Most recent meeting: Toronto FC 2-1 Columbus Crew on 21 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.29 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the seven — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Columbus Crew 64.8 versus Toronto FC 46.1, a gap of 18.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Columbus Crew's way at 61%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Columbus Crew at 58%, a gap of 37 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Columbus Crew's way, especially at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Columbus Crew or Toronto FC?
Columbus Crew, with an implied win probability of roughly 58%. The full split is 58% Columbus Crew, 21% the draw and 21% Toronto FC.
When and where is Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC being played?
24 October 2026 at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field, Columbus, kick-off 19:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Columbus Crew and Toronto FC?
Toronto FC 2-1 Columbus Crew on 21 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Columbus Crew and Toronto FC?
Columbus Crew have taken 10 points from their last five (DWWLW), Toronto FC 7 from theirs (WDWLL). Most recently Columbus Crew took a 0-0 draw at home to St. Louis City and Toronto FC a 2-0 win away at New York Red Bulls.
How many goals are expected in Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.40 for Columbus Crew and 1.40 for Toronto FC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists six players unavailable for Columbus Crew and six for Toronto FC at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.