CF Montreal vs Nashville SC — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Nashville SC the pick at 54% for CF Montreal vs Nashville SC. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
CF Montreal face Nashville SC on 24 October 2026 at Saputo Stadium, Montreal. Nashville SC are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 54%. This matchday 31 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as CF Montreal - Nashville SC. Kick-off is 17:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
CF Montreal: they come in on two successive draws, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (24 scored and 32 conceded in 19 matches, 1.26 and 1.68 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 32.3 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -24.
Nashville SC: they come in on the back of a draw, following four wins before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 23 conceded in 29 matches, 1.59 and 0.79 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 78.6 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +41.
Side by side
| Statistic | CF Montreal | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 1st |
| Goal difference | -24 | +41 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDLLW | DWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 8 | 14 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 19 | 29 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.26 / 1.68 | 1.59 / 0.79 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.95 | 1.76 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 32.3 | 78.6 |
| Players unavailable | 8 | 4 |
| Model win probability | 21% | 54% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 1 | 3 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): CF Montreal one win, Nashville SC three wins, two draws — an edge to Nashville SC.
- Most recent meeting: CF Montreal 1-1 Nashville SC on 04 October 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.17 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the six — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: CF Montreal 32.3 versus Nashville SC 78.6, a gap of 46.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 14 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: CF Montreal carry the heavier absentee list, eight players to four.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Nashville SC's way at 60%.
The call
The model tilts to Nashville SC at 54%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Nashville SC's stronger recent metrics back it, the goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: CF Montreal or Nashville SC?
Nashville SC, with an implied win probability of roughly 54%. The full split is 21% CF Montreal, 26% the draw and 54% Nashville SC.
When and where is CF Montreal vs Nashville SC being played?
24 October 2026 at Saputo Stadium, Montreal, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between CF Montreal and Nashville SC?
CF Montreal 1-1 Nashville SC on 04 October 2025.
What is the recent form of CF Montreal and Nashville SC?
CF Montreal have taken 5 points from their last five (DDLLW), Nashville SC 13 from theirs (DWWWW). Most recently CF Montreal took a 1-1 draw at home to Forge and Nashville SC a 1-1 draw away at San Jose Earthquakes.
How many goals are expected in CF Montreal vs Nashville SC?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 0.80 for CF Montreal and 1.00 for Nashville SC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists eight players unavailable for CF Montreal and four for Nashville SC at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.