New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Inter Miami the pick at 53% for New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
New York Red Bulls host Inter Miami on 24 October 2026 at Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison. Inter Miami are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 53%. This matchday 31 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as New York Red Bulls - Inter Miami. Kick-off is 21:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
New York Red Bulls: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (23 scored and 32 conceded in 19 matches, 1.21 and 1.68 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.8 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -17.
Inter Miami: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (48 scored and 36 conceded in 23 matches, 2.09 and 1.57 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 63.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +22.
Comparison data
| Statistic | New York Red Bulls | Inter Miami |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | -17 | +22 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWLW | WWWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 8 | 12 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 19 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.21 / 1.68 | 2.09 / 1.57 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.32 | 1.78 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 40.8 | 63.8 |
| Players unavailable | 2 | 8 |
| Model win probability | 23% | 53% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 7) | 2 | 5 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 7): New York Red Bulls two wins, Inter Miami five wins, none draws — an edge to Inter Miami.
- Most recent meeting: Inter Miami 2-1 New York Red Bulls on 11 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.86 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in four of the seven — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: New York Red Bulls 40.8 versus Inter Miami 63.8, a gap of 23.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: Inter Miami carry the heavier absentee list, eight players to two.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 61%.
- First goal: Leans Inter Miami's way at 59%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Inter Miami at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Inter Miami's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: New York Red Bulls or Inter Miami?
Inter Miami, with an implied win probability of roughly 53%. The full split is 23% New York Red Bulls, 24% the draw and 53% Inter Miami.
When and where is New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami being played?
24 October 2026 at Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, kick-off 21:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami?
Inter Miami 2-1 New York Red Bulls on 11 April 2026.
What is the recent form of New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami?
New York Red Bulls have taken 6 points from their last five (LLWLW), Inter Miami 10 from theirs (WWWLD). Most recently New York Red Bulls took a 0-2 defeat at home to Toronto FC and Inter Miami a 3-1 win away at Atlanta United FC.
How many goals are expected in New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.00 for New York Red Bulls and 1.60 for Inter Miami. It rates over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 61%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists two players unavailable for New York Red Bulls and eight for Inter Miami at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.