Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Chicago Fire the pick at 46% for Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Atlanta United FC host Chicago Fire on 24 October 2026 at Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta. Chicago Fire are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This matchday 31 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as Atlanta United FC - Chicago Fire. Kick-off is 23:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Atlanta United FC: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 26 conceded in 19 matches, 1.11 and 1.37 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.8 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -14.
Chicago Fire: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following three wins before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (39 scored and 26 conceded in 21 matches, 1.86 and 1.24 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.0 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +8.
Side by side
| Statistic | Atlanta United FC | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 4th |
| Goal difference | -14 | +8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLDW | LLWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 8 | 7 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 19 | 21 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.11 / 1.37 | 1.86 / 1.24 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.11 | 1.71 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 44.8 | 57.0 |
| Players unavailable | 4 | 8 |
| Model win probability | 29% | 46% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 7) | 2 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 7): Atlanta United FC two wins, Chicago Fire two wins, three draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Chicago Fire 1-0 Atlanta United FC on 12 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.57 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in four of the seven — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Atlanta United FC 44.8 versus Chicago Fire 57.0, a gap of 12.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: Chicago Fire carry the heavier absentee list, eight players to four.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Chicago Fire's way at 56%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Chicago Fire at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Atlanta United FC's form line and home advantage back it, the goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Atlanta United FC or Chicago Fire?
Chicago Fire, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 29% Atlanta United FC, 25% the draw and 46% Chicago Fire.
When and where is Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire being played?
24 October 2026 at Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, kick-off 23:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Atlanta United FC and Chicago Fire?
Chicago Fire 1-0 Atlanta United FC on 12 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Atlanta United FC and Chicago Fire?
Atlanta United FC have taken 7 points from their last five (LWLDW), Chicago Fire 9 from theirs (LLWWW). Most recently Atlanta United FC took a 1-3 defeat at home to Inter Miami and Chicago Fire a 0-1 defeat away at New England Revolution.
How many goals are expected in Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 1.60 for Atlanta United FC and 2.00 for Chicago Fire. It rates over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists four players unavailable for Atlanta United FC and eight for Chicago Fire at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.