Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Nashville SC the pick at 44% for Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Philadelphia Union travel to Nashville SC on 29 October 2026 at Geodis Park, Nashville. Nashville SC are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This matchday 32 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as Nashville SC - Philadelphia Union. Kick-off is 00:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Nashville SC: they come in on the back of a win, following three wins and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (48 scored and 23 conceded in 30 matches, 1.6 and 0.77 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 79.1 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +43.
Philadelphia Union: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (43 scored and 29 conceded in 24 matches, 1.79 and 1.21 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 71.6 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +13.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Nashville SC | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 6th |
| Goal difference | +43 | +13 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWWW | LDWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 13 / 2 | 12 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 30 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.6 / 0.77 | 1.79 / 1.21 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.8 | 1.33 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 79.1 | 71.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 28% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 7) | 2 | 3 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 7): Nashville SC two wins, Philadelphia Union three wins, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Philadelphia Union 0-0 Nashville SC on 02 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.86 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the seven — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Nashville SC 79.1 versus Philadelphia Union 71.6, a gap of 7.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.40, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Nashville SC's way at 54%.
The call
The model edges towards Nashville SC at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Nashville SC's way, especially at Geodis Park.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Nashville SC or Philadelphia Union?
Nashville SC, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% Nashville SC, 28% the draw and 28% Philadelphia Union.
When and where is Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union being played?
29 October 2026 at Geodis Park, Nashville, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Nashville SC and Philadelphia Union?
Philadelphia Union 0-0 Nashville SC on 02 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Nashville SC and Philadelphia Union?
Nashville SC have taken 13 points from their last five (WDWWW), Philadelphia Union 10 from theirs (LDWWW). Most recently Nashville SC took a 2-0 win away at CF Montreal and Philadelphia Union a 1-2 defeat at home to New England Revolution.
How many goals are expected in Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.40 — 1.20 for Nashville SC and 3.20 for Philadelphia Union. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.