FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes FC Dallas the pick at 46% for FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
FC Dallas host Columbus Crew on 29 October 2026 at Toyota Stadium, Frisco. FC Dallas are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This matchday 32 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as FC Dallas - Columbus Crew. Kick-off is 00:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
FC Dallas: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (38 scored and 31 conceded in 22 matches, 1.73 and 1.41 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 53.7 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +8.
Columbus Crew: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 24 conceded in 21 matches, 1.48 and 1.14 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 65.2 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | FC Dallas | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 10th |
| Goal difference | +8 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWLW | WDWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 5 | 11 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 22 | 21 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.73 / 1.41 | 1.48 / 1.14 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.73 | 1.43 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 53.7 | 65.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 46% | 29% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: FC Dallas 53.7 versus Columbus Crew 65.2, a gap of 11.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.20, over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 62%.
- First goal: Leans FC Dallas' way at 53%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to FC Dallas at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts FC Dallas's way, especially at Toyota Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC Dallas or Columbus Crew?
FC Dallas, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 46% FC Dallas, 26% the draw and 29% Columbus Crew.
When and where is FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew being played?
29 October 2026 at Toyota Stadium, Frisco, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between FC Dallas and Columbus Crew?
FC Dallas 1-1 Columbus Crew on 24 September 2023.
What is the recent form of FC Dallas and Columbus Crew?
FC Dallas have taken 10 points from their last five (WDWLW), Columbus Crew 10 from theirs (WDWWL). Most recently FC Dallas took a 3-0 win at home to San Jose Earthquakes and Columbus Crew a 4-2 win at home to Toronto FC.
How many goals are expected in FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.20 — 2.20 for FC Dallas and 2.00 for Columbus Crew. It rates over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 62%, so its call is yes.