Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Chicago Fire the pick at 52% for Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Orlando City SC travel to Chicago Fire on 29 October 2026 at Soldier Field, Chicago. Chicago Fire are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 52%. This matchday 32 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as Chicago Fire - Orlando City SC. Kick-off is 00:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Chicago Fire: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (42 scored and 28 conceded in 22 matches, 1.91 and 1.27 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.0 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +8.
Orlando City SC: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (33 scored and 46 conceded in 22 matches, 1.5 and 2.09 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.3 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of -12.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Chicago Fire | Orlando City SC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 7th |
| Goal difference | +8 | -12 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLWW | DWDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 8 | 14 / 12 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 22 | 22 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.91 / 1.27 | 1.5 / 2.09 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.77 | 1.45 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 57.0 | 45.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 52% | 25% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 7) | 2 | 3 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 7): Chicago Fire two wins, Orlando City SC three wins, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Chicago Fire 3-1 Orlando City SC on 23 October 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.43 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in six of the seven — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Chicago Fire 57.0 versus Orlando City SC 45.3, a gap of 11.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.20, over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 61%.
- First goal: Leans Chicago Fire's way at 59%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Chicago Fire at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Chicago Fire's way, especially at Soldier Field.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Chicago Fire or Orlando City SC?
Chicago Fire, with an implied win probability of roughly 52%. The full split is 52% Chicago Fire, 23% the draw and 25% Orlando City SC.
When and where is Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC being played?
29 October 2026 at Soldier Field, Chicago, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Chicago Fire and Orlando City SC?
Chicago Fire 3-1 Orlando City SC on 23 October 2025.
What is the recent form of Chicago Fire and Orlando City SC?
Chicago Fire have taken 9 points from their last five (WLLWW), Orlando City SC 8 from theirs (DWDWL). Most recently Chicago Fire took a 3-2 win away at Atlanta United FC and Orlando City SC a 2-2 draw at home to New York City FC.
How many goals are expected in Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.20 — 2.00 for Chicago Fire and 2.20 for Orlando City SC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 61%, so its call is yes.