St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes St. Louis City the pick at 47% for St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
St. Louis City face Portland Timbers on 29 October 2026 at CITYPARK, Saint Louis. St. Louis City are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This matchday 32 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as St. Louis City - Portland Timbers. Kick-off is 00:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
St. Louis City: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 28 conceded in 21 matches, 1.43 and 1.33 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 62.1 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +15.
Portland Timbers: they come in on two successive draws, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (41 scored and 42 conceded in 22 matches, 1.86 and 1.91 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 30.4 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -5.
Comparison data
| Statistic | St. Louis City | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 11th |
| Goal difference | +15 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLDW | DDLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 8 | 5 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 21 | 22 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.43 / 1.33 | 1.86 / 1.91 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.52 | 1.23 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 62.1 | 30.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 47% | 27% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 1 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): St. Louis City one win, Portland Timbers two wins, three draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Portland Timbers 2-2 St. Louis City on 10 September 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in five of the six — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: St. Louis City 62.1 versus Portland Timbers 30.4, a gap of 31.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.00, over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans St. Louis City's way at 53%.
The call
The model tilts to St. Louis City at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts St. Louis City's way, especially at CITYPARK.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: St. Louis City or Portland Timbers?
St. Louis City, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 47% St. Louis City, 26% the draw and 27% Portland Timbers.
When and where is St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers being played?
29 October 2026 at CITYPARK, Saint Louis, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between St. Louis City and Portland Timbers?
Portland Timbers 2-2 St. Louis City on 10 September 2026.
What is the recent form of St. Louis City and Portland Timbers?
St. Louis City have taken 5 points from their last five (LDLDW), Portland Timbers 3 from theirs (DDLDL). Most recently St. Louis City took a 0-3 defeat away at Real Salt Lake and Portland Timbers a 1-1 draw at home to Charlotte.
How many goals are expected in St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.00 — 2.20 for St. Louis City and 1.80 for Portland Timbers. It rates over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.