San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes San Jose Earthquakes the pick at 47% for San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Colorado Rapids travel to San Jose Earthquakes on 29 October 2026 at PayPal Park, San Jose. San Jose Earthquakes are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This matchday 32 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as San Jose Earthquakes - Colorado Rapids. Kick-off is 02:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
San Jose Earthquakes: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and three draws before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (36 scored and 20 conceded in 18 matches, 2.0 and 1.11 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 50.8 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +10.
Colorado Rapids: they come in on four successive draws, following one defeat before that. That is no wins, four draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 28 conceded in 21 matches, 1.33 and 1.33 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.3 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of 0.
Side by side
| Statistic | San Jose Earthquakes | Colorado Rapids |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 9th |
| Goal difference | +10 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDDDW | DDDDL |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 7 | 5 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 18 | 21 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.0 / 1.11 | 1.33 / 1.33 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.94 | 1.14 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 50.8 | 38.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 47% | 23% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 3 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): San Jose Earthquakes three wins, Colorado Rapids two wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Colorado Rapids 0-2 San Jose Earthquakes on 11 May 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.33 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the six — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: San Jose Earthquakes 50.8 versus Colorado Rapids 38.3, a gap of 12.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans San Jose Earthquakes' way at 59%.
The call
The model tilts to San Jose Earthquakes at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts San Jose Earthquakes's way, especially at PayPal Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: San Jose Earthquakes or Colorado Rapids?
San Jose Earthquakes, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 47% San Jose Earthquakes, 30% the draw and 23% Colorado Rapids.
When and where is San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids being played?
29 October 2026 at PayPal Park, San Jose, kick-off 02:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between San Jose Earthquakes and Colorado Rapids?
Colorado Rapids 0-2 San Jose Earthquakes on 11 May 2025.
What is the recent form of San Jose Earthquakes and Colorado Rapids?
San Jose Earthquakes have taken 6 points from their last five (LDDDW), Colorado Rapids 4 from theirs (DDDDL). Most recently San Jose Earthquakes took a 0-3 defeat away at FC Dallas and Colorado Rapids a 0-0 draw at home to Vancouver Whitecaps.
How many goals are expected in San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.40 for San Jose Earthquakes and 0.60 for Colorado Rapids. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.