FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union: the numbers, the form and our prediction
There is barely anything between FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
FC Cincinnati face Philadelphia Union on 31 October 2026 at TQL Stadium, Cincinnati. FC Cincinnati are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 38%. This matchday 33 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as FC Cincinnati - Philadelphia Union. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
FC Cincinnati: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (62 scored and 54 conceded in 28 matches, 2.21 and 1.93 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.6 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -7.
Philadelphia Union: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (43 scored and 29 conceded in 25 matches, 1.72 and 1.16 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 54.7 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +12.
Side by side
| Statistic | FC Cincinnati | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 6th |
| Goal difference | -7 | +12 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWLL | DLDWW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 8 | 8 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 28 | 25 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.21 / 1.93 | 1.72 / 1.16 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.57 | 1.32 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 46.6 | 54.7 |
| Players unavailable | 8 | 6 |
| Model win probability | 38% | 34% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 4 | 3 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): FC Cincinnati four wins, Philadelphia Union three wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Philadelphia Union 5-0 FC Cincinnati on 09 September 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.38 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in four of the eight — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: FC Cincinnati 46.6 versus Philadelphia Union 54.7, a gap of 8.1, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.00, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Philadelphia Union's way at 48%.
The call
The model does not commit. FC Cincinnati is the nominal pick at 38%, but the three results sit close to even. FC Cincinnati's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts FC Cincinnati's way, especially at TQL Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC Cincinnati or Philadelphia Union?
FC Cincinnati, with an implied win probability of roughly 38%. The full split is 38% FC Cincinnati, 28% the draw and 34% Philadelphia Union.
When and where is FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union being played?
31 October 2026 at TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union?
Philadelphia Union 5-0 FC Cincinnati on 09 September 2026.
What is the recent form of FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union?
FC Cincinnati have taken 7 points from their last five (DWWLL), Philadelphia Union 8 from theirs (DLDWW). Most recently FC Cincinnati took a 2-2 draw away at Inter Miami and Philadelphia Union a 0-0 draw away at Nashville SC.
How many goals are expected in FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.00 — 1.40 for FC Cincinnati and 2.60 for Philadelphia Union. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists eight players unavailable for FC Cincinnati and six for Philadelphia Union at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.