Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Nashville SC the pick at 54% for Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
New York Red Bulls travel to Nashville SC on 1 November 2026 at Geodis Park, Nashville. Nashville SC are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 54%. This matchday 33 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as Nashville SC - New York Red Bulls. Kick-off is 21:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Nashville SC: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (48 scored and 23 conceded in 31 matches, 1.55 and 0.74 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 72.4 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +43.
New York Red Bulls: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 35 conceded in 21 matches, 1.29 and 1.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.0 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -16.
Side by side
| Statistic | Nashville SC | New York Red Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 10th |
| Goal difference | +43 | -16 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWDWW | LWLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 2 | 9 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 31 | 21 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.55 / 0.74 | 1.29 / 1.67 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.77 | 1.33 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 72.4 | 41.0 |
| Players unavailable | 4 | 6 |
| Model win probability | 54% | 18% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 1 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): Nashville SC one win, New York Red Bulls two wins, three draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Nashville SC 2-1 New York Red Bulls on 15 May 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the six — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Nashville SC 72.4 versus New York Red Bulls 41.0, a gap of 31.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Nashville SC's way at 62%.
The call
The model tilts to Nashville SC at 54%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Nashville SC's way, especially at Geodis Park.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Nashville SC or New York Red Bulls?
Nashville SC, with an implied win probability of roughly 54%. The full split is 54% Nashville SC, 29% the draw and 18% New York Red Bulls.
When and where is Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls being played?
1 November 2026 at Geodis Park, Nashville, kick-off 21:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Nashville SC and New York Red Bulls?
Nashville SC 2-1 New York Red Bulls on 15 May 2025.
What is the recent form of Nashville SC and New York Red Bulls?
Nashville SC have taken 11 points from their last five (DWDWW), New York Red Bulls 6 from theirs (LWLLW). Most recently Nashville SC took a 0-0 draw at home to Philadelphia Union and New York Red Bulls a 2-3 defeat away at New England Revolution.
How many goals are expected in Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.20 for Nashville SC and 1.00 for New York Red Bulls. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists four players unavailable for Nashville SC and six for New York Red Bulls at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.