Charlotte vs Orlando City SC — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Charlotte the pick at 41% for Charlotte vs Orlando City SC. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Charlotte face Orlando City SC on 31 October 2026 at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte. Charlotte are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 41%. This matchday 33 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as Charlotte - Orlando City SC. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Charlotte: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (35 scored and 23 conceded in 22 matches, 1.59 and 1.05 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.1 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +11.
Orlando City SC: they come in on two successive draws, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (35 scored and 48 conceded in 23 matches, 1.52 and 2.09 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.0 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of -12.
Side by side
| Statistic | Charlotte | Orlando City SC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 7th |
| Goal difference | +11 | -12 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDLW | DDWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 10 | 14 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 22 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.59 / 1.05 | 1.52 / 2.09 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.64 | 1.43 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 51.1 | 52.0 |
| Players unavailable | 14 | 8 |
| Model win probability | 41% | 30% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 8) | 0 | 4 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 8): Charlotte none wins, Orlando City SC four wins, four draws — an edge to Orlando City SC.
- Most recent meeting: Orlando City SC 2-1 Charlotte on 22 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.62 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in five of the eight — broadly an average game for goals.
- Availability: Charlotte carry the heavier absentee list, 14 players to eight.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.40, over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 65%.
- First goal: Leans Charlotte's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Charlotte at 41%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Charlotte's way, especially at Bank of America Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Charlotte or Orlando City SC?
Charlotte, with an implied win probability of roughly 41%. The full split is 41% Charlotte, 29% the draw and 30% Orlando City SC.
When and where is Charlotte vs Orlando City SC being played?
31 October 2026 at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Charlotte and Orlando City SC?
Orlando City SC 2-1 Charlotte on 22 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Charlotte and Orlando City SC?
Charlotte have taken 7 points from their last five (WLDLW), Orlando City SC 9 from theirs (DDWDW). Most recently Charlotte took a 4-0 win at home to CF Montreal and Orlando City SC a 2-2 draw away at Chicago Fire.
How many goals are expected in Charlotte vs Orlando City SC?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.40 — 2.20 for Charlotte and 2.20 for Orlando City SC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 65%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists 14 players unavailable for Charlotte and eight for Orlando City SC at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.