New York City FC vs CF Montreal: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes New York City FC the pick at 64% for New York City FC vs CF Montreal. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
New York City FC host CF Montreal on 31 October 2026 at Citi Field, Flushing. New York City FC are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 64%. This matchday 33 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as New York City FC - CF Montreal. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
New York City FC: they come in on the back of a win, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (33 scored and 24 conceded in 23 matches, 1.43 and 1.04 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.4 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of +3.
CF Montreal: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (24 scored and 38 conceded in 21 matches, 1.14 and 1.81 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 20.8 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -30.
Side by side
| Statistic | New York City FC | CF Montreal |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 15th |
| Goal difference | +3 | -30 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDDLL | LLDDL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 8 | 2 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 23 | 21 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.43 / 1.04 | 1.14 / 1.81 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.52 | 0.86 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 42.4 | 20.8 |
| Players unavailable | 10 | 10 |
| Model win probability | 64% | 13% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 7) | 3 | 4 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 7): New York City FC three wins, CF Montreal four wins, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: CF Montreal 1-0 New York City FC on 25 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.43 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the seven — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: New York City FC 42.4 versus CF Montreal 20.8, a gap of 21.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans New York City FC's way at 68%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards New York City FC at 64%, a gap of 40 percentage points to the next outcome. New York City FC's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts New York City FC's way, especially at Citi Field.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: New York City FC or CF Montreal?
New York City FC, with an implied win probability of roughly 64%. The full split is 64% New York City FC, 24% the draw and 13% CF Montreal.
When and where is New York City FC vs CF Montreal being played?
31 October 2026 at Citi Field, Flushing, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between New York City FC and CF Montreal?
CF Montreal 1-0 New York City FC on 25 April 2026.
What is the recent form of New York City FC and CF Montreal?
New York City FC have taken 5 points from their last five (WDDLL), CF Montreal 2 from theirs (LLDDL). Most recently New York City FC took a 2-1 win at home to Atlanta United FC and CF Montreal a 0-4 defeat away at Charlotte.
How many goals are expected in New York City FC vs CF Montreal?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 1.40 for New York City FC and 0.40 for CF Montreal. It rates over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists ten players unavailable for New York City FC and ten for CF Montreal at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.