St. Louis City vs San Diego: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes St. Louis City the pick at 51% for St. Louis City vs San Diego. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
St. Louis City face San Diego on 31 October 2026 at Citypark, Saint Louis. St. Louis City are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 51%. This matchday 33 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as St. Louis City - San Diego. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
St. Louis City: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 34 conceded in 23 matches, 1.39 and 1.48 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.1 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +11.
San Diego: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 58 conceded in 29 matches, 1.59 and 2.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 33.5 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -6.
Side by side
| Statistic | St. Louis City | San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 13th |
| Goal difference | +11 | -6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDLD | LDDDL |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 9 | 9 / 15 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 23 | 29 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.39 / 1.48 | 1.59 / 2.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.39 | 1.1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.1 | 33.5 |
| Players unavailable | 6 | 2 |
| Model win probability | 51% | 28% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): St. Louis City none wins, San Diego two wins, none draws — an edge to San Diego.
- Most recent meeting: San Diego 2-0 St. Louis City on 02 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: St. Louis City 41.1 versus San Diego 33.5, a gap of 7.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: St. Louis City carry the heavier absentee list, six players to two.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 64%.
- First goal: Leans St. Louis City's way at 55%.
The call
The model tilts to St. Louis City at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts St. Louis City's way, especially at Citypark.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: St. Louis City or San Diego?
St. Louis City, with an implied win probability of roughly 51%. The full split is 51% St. Louis City, 22% the draw and 28% San Diego.
When and where is St. Louis City vs San Diego being played?
31 October 2026 at Citypark, Saint Louis, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between St. Louis City and San Diego?
San Diego 2-0 St. Louis City on 02 March 2026.
What is the recent form of St. Louis City and San Diego?
St. Louis City have taken 2 points from their last five (LLDLD), San Diego 3 from theirs (LDDDL). Most recently St. Louis City took a 2-3 defeat at home to Portland Timbers and San Diego a 1-4 defeat away at Vancouver Whitecaps.
How many goals are expected in St. Louis City vs San Diego?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 2.20 for St. Louis City and 1.40 for San Diego. It rates over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 64%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists six players unavailable for St. Louis City and two for San Diego at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.