San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake — form, head-to-head and match prediction
There is barely anything between San Jose Earthquakes and Real Salt Lake on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
San Jose Earthquakes host Real Salt Lake on 31 October 2026 at Avaya Stadium, San Jose. Real Salt Lake are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 36%. This matchday 33 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as San Jose Earthquakes - Real Salt Lake. Kick-off is 21:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
San Jose Earthquakes: they come in on the back of a draw, following three draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, four draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (38 scored and 25 conceded in 20 matches, 1.9 and 1.25 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.1 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +7.
Real Salt Lake: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (45 scored and 29 conceded in 23 matches, 1.96 and 1.26 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.6 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | San Jose Earthquakes | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 9th |
| Goal difference | +7 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLDDD | WWWDL |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 8 | 10 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 20 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.9 / 1.25 | 1.96 / 1.26 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.8 | 1.78 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 40.1 | 58.6 |
| Players unavailable | 10 | 12 |
| Model win probability | 35% | 36% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 5): San Jose Earthquakes three wins, Real Salt Lake two wins, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: San Jose Earthquakes 4-0 Real Salt Lake on 23 February 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.8 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the five — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: San Jose Earthquakes 40.1 versus Real Salt Lake 58.6, a gap of 18.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Real Salt Lake's way at 47%.
The call
The model does not commit. Real Salt Lake is the nominal pick at 36%, but the three results sit close to even. Real Salt Lake's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: San Jose Earthquakes or Real Salt Lake?
Real Salt Lake, with an implied win probability of roughly 36%. The full split is 35% San Jose Earthquakes, 29% the draw and 36% Real Salt Lake.
When and where is San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake being played?
31 October 2026 at Avaya Stadium, San Jose, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between San Jose Earthquakes and Real Salt Lake?
San Jose Earthquakes 4-0 Real Salt Lake on 23 February 2025.
What is the recent form of San Jose Earthquakes and Real Salt Lake?
San Jose Earthquakes have taken 4 points from their last five (DLDDD), Real Salt Lake 10 from theirs (WWWDL). Most recently San Jose Earthquakes took a 2-2 draw at home to Colorado Rapids and Real Salt Lake a 2-1 win away at Austin.
How many goals are expected in San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 1.40 for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.80 for Real Salt Lake. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists ten players unavailable for San Jose Earthquakes and twelve for Real Salt Lake at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.