FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes FC Cincinnati the pick at 41% for FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
FC Cincinnati host Nashville SC on 7 November 2026 at TQL Stadium, Cincinnati. FC Cincinnati are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 41%. This matchday 34 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as FC Cincinnati - Nashville SC. Kick-off is 21:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
FC Cincinnati: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (63 scored and 54 conceded in 29 matches, 2.17 and 1.86 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.8 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of -6.
Nashville SC: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (51 scored and 25 conceded in 32 matches, 1.59 and 0.78 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 72.7 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +44.
Side by side
| Statistic | FC Cincinnati | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 1st |
| Goal difference | -6 | +44 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWWL | WDWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 5 | 10 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 29 | 32 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.17 / 1.86 | 1.59 / 0.78 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.62 | 1.81 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 56.8 | 72.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 41% | 30% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 5): FC Cincinnati two wins, Nashville SC one win, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: FC Cincinnati 0-0 Nashville SC on 13 September 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the five — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: FC Cincinnati 56.8 versus Nashville SC 72.7, a gap of 15.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans FC Cincinnati's way at 50%.
The call
The model edges towards FC Cincinnati at 41%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts FC Cincinnati's way, especially at TQL Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC Cincinnati or Nashville SC?
FC Cincinnati, with an implied win probability of roughly 41%. The full split is 41% FC Cincinnati, 29% the draw and 30% Nashville SC.
When and where is FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC being played?
7 November 2026 at TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between FC Cincinnati and Nashville SC?
FC Cincinnati 0-0 Nashville SC on 13 September 2025.
What is the recent form of FC Cincinnati and Nashville SC?
FC Cincinnati have taken 10 points from their last five (WDWWL), Nashville SC 11 from theirs (WDWDW). Most recently FC Cincinnati took a 1-0 win at home to Philadelphia Union and Nashville SC a 3-2 win at home to New York Red Bulls.
How many goals are expected in FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 1.60 for FC Cincinnati and 1.60 for Nashville SC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.