Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Philadelphia Union the pick at 63% for Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Toronto FC travel to Philadelphia Union on 7 November 2026 at Subaru Park, Philadelphia. Philadelphia Union are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 63%. This matchday 34 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as Philadelphia Union - Toronto FC. Kick-off is 21:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Philadelphia Union: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (43 scored and 30 conceded in 26 matches, 1.65 and 1.15 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.4 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +11.
Toronto FC: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 38 conceded in 21 matches, 1.43 and 1.81 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.3 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -12.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Philadelphia Union | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 12th |
| Goal difference | +11 | -12 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLDW | LWLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 6 | 10 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 26 | 21 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.65 / 1.15 | 1.43 / 1.81 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.27 | 1.1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 44.4 | 45.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 63% | 14% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 3 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): Philadelphia Union three wins, Toronto FC two wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Toronto FC 1-2 Philadelphia Union on 22 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.17 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in five of the six — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Philadelphia Union's way at 63%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Philadelphia Union at 63%, a gap of 41 percentage points to the next outcome. Toronto FC's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Philadelphia Union's way, especially at Subaru Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Philadelphia Union or Toronto FC?
Philadelphia Union, with an implied win probability of roughly 63%. The full split is 63% Philadelphia Union, 23% the draw and 14% Toronto FC.
When and where is Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC being played?
7 November 2026 at Subaru Park, Philadelphia, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC?
Toronto FC 1-2 Philadelphia Union on 22 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC?
Philadelphia Union have taken 5 points from their last five (LDLDW), Toronto FC 7 from theirs (LWLWD). Most recently Philadelphia Union took a 0-1 defeat away at FC Cincinnati and Toronto FC a 1-3 defeat away at Atlanta United FC.
How many goals are expected in Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 2.20 for Philadelphia Union and 1.40 for Toronto FC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.