New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes New York Red Bulls the pick at 43% for New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Atlanta United FC travel to New York Red Bulls on 7 November 2026 at Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison. New York Red Bulls are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This matchday 34 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as New York Red Bulls - Atlanta United FC. Kick-off is 21:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
New York Red Bulls: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (29 scored and 38 conceded in 22 matches, 1.32 and 1.73 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 30.8 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -17.
Atlanta United FC: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 32 conceded in 22 matches, 1.23 and 1.45 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.5 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -14.
Side by side
| Statistic | New York Red Bulls | Atlanta United FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 13th |
| Goal difference | -17 | -14 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWLL | WLLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 10 | 10 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 22 | 22 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.32 / 1.73 | 1.23 / 1.45 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.27 | 1.09 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 30.8 | 41.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 28% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 2 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): New York Red Bulls two wins, Atlanta United FC two wins, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: New York Red Bulls 2-0 Atlanta United FC on 31 May 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.33 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the six — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: New York Red Bulls 30.8 versus Atlanta United FC 41.5, a gap of 10.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans New York Red Bulls' way at 53%.
The call
The model edges towards New York Red Bulls at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Atlanta United FC's stronger recent metrics back it, the goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts New York Red Bulls's way, especially at Sports Illustrated Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: New York Red Bulls or Atlanta United FC?
New York Red Bulls, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% New York Red Bulls, 29% the draw and 28% Atlanta United FC.
When and where is New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC being played?
7 November 2026 at Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between New York Red Bulls and Atlanta United FC?
New York Red Bulls 2-0 Atlanta United FC on 31 May 2025.
What is the recent form of New York Red Bulls and Atlanta United FC?
New York Red Bulls have taken 3 points from their last five (LLWLL), Atlanta United FC 6 from theirs (WLLLW). Most recently New York Red Bulls took a 2-3 defeat away at Nashville SC and Atlanta United FC a 3-1 win at home to Toronto FC.
How many goals are expected in New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.40 for New York Red Bulls and 1.60 for Atlanta United FC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.