Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Chicago Fire the pick at 49% for Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Chicago Fire face Columbus Crew on 7 November 2026 at Soldier Field, Chicago. Chicago Fire are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 49%. This matchday 34 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as Chicago Fire - Columbus Crew. Kick-off is 21:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Chicago Fire: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (48 scored and 32 conceded in 24 matches, 2.0 and 1.33 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.1 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +11.
Columbus Crew: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one win and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (36 scored and 24 conceded in 23 matches, 1.57 and 1.04 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 76.5 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +6.
Side by side
| Statistic | Chicago Fire | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 8th |
| Goal difference | +11 | +6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWLL | WWWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 10 | 11 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 4 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 24 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.0 / 1.33 | 1.57 / 1.04 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.79 | 1.57 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 51.1 | 76.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 49% | 26% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 7) | 1 | 5 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 7): Chicago Fire one win, Columbus Crew five wins, one draw — an edge to Columbus Crew.
- Most recent meeting: Columbus Crew 0-0 Chicago Fire on 08 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in four of the seven — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Chicago Fire 51.1 versus Columbus Crew 76.5, a gap of 25.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.40, over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Chicago Fire's way at 57%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Chicago Fire at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Chicago Fire's way, especially at Soldier Field.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Chicago Fire or Columbus Crew?
Chicago Fire, with an implied win probability of roughly 49%. The full split is 49% Chicago Fire, 24% the draw and 26% Columbus Crew.
When and where is Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew being played?
7 November 2026 at Soldier Field, Chicago, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Chicago Fire and Columbus Crew?
Columbus Crew 0-0 Chicago Fire on 08 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Chicago Fire and Columbus Crew?
Chicago Fire have taken 7 points from their last five (WDWLL), Columbus Crew 13 from theirs (WWWDW). Most recently Chicago Fire took a 4-2 win away at Colorado Rapids and Columbus Crew a 3-0 win at home to DC United.
How many goals are expected in Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.40 — 2.20 for Chicago Fire and 2.20 for Columbus Crew. It rates over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.