DC United vs New York City FC: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes New York City FC the pick at 50% for DC United vs New York City FC. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
DC United host New York City FC on 7 November 2026 at Audi Field, Washington. New York City FC are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This matchday 34 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as DC United - New York City FC. Kick-off is 21:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
DC United: they come in on five defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and five defeats from the last five, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 26 conceded in 19 matches, 1.05 and 1.37 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 19.8 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -21.
New York City FC: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (34 scored and 25 conceded in 24 matches, 1.42 and 1.04 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.8 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | DC United | New York City FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 11th |
| Goal difference | -21 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLLL | DWDDL |
| Points from last 5 | 0 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 13 | 6 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 19 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.05 / 1.37 | 1.42 / 1.04 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.11 | 1.5 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 19.8 | 45.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 24% | 50% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 7) | 2 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 7): DC United two wins, New York City FC two wins, three draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: New York City FC 0-2 DC United on 03 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.14 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the seven — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: DC United 19.8 versus New York City FC 45.8, a gap of 26.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans New York City FC's way at 54%.
The call
The model tilts to New York City FC at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. New York City FC's stronger recent metrics back it, the goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: DC United or New York City FC?
New York City FC, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 24% DC United, 26% the draw and 50% New York City FC.
When and where is DC United vs New York City FC being played?
7 November 2026 at Audi Field, Washington, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between DC United and New York City FC?
New York City FC 0-2 DC United on 03 May 2026.
What is the recent form of DC United and New York City FC?
DC United have taken 0 points from their last five (LLLLL), New York City FC 6 from theirs (DWDDL). Most recently DC United took a 0-3 defeat away at Columbus Crew and New York City FC a 1-1 draw at home to CF Montreal.
How many goals are expected in DC United vs New York City FC?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 0.60 for DC United and 1.60 for New York City FC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.