Austin vs Portland Timbers: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Portland Timbers the pick at 50% for Austin vs Portland Timbers. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Austin host Portland Timbers on 8 November 2026 at Q2 Stadium, Austin. Portland Timbers are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This matchday 34 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as Austin - Portland Timbers. Kick-off is 00:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Austin: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (29 scored and 44 conceded in 24 matches, 1.21 and 1.83 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 29.8 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -21.
Portland Timbers: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (50 scored and 47 conceded in 25 matches, 2.0 and 1.88 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.1 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Austin | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 8th |
| Goal difference | -21 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWLL | WWWDL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 12 | 9 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 24 | 25 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.21 / 1.83 | 2.0 / 1.88 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.0 | 1.44 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 29.8 | 58.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 25% | 50% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 1 | 3 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): Austin one win, Portland Timbers three wins, two draws — an edge to Portland Timbers.
- Most recent meeting: Austin 0-0 Portland Timbers on 05 April 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.83 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the six — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Austin 29.8 versus Portland Timbers 58.1, a gap of 28.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.40, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 62%.
- First goal: Leans Portland Timbers' way at 58%.
The call
The model tilts to Portland Timbers at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Portland Timbers' stronger recent metrics back it, the goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Austin or Portland Timbers?
Portland Timbers, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 25% Austin, 25% the draw and 50% Portland Timbers.
When and where is Austin vs Portland Timbers being played?
8 November 2026 at Q2 Stadium, Austin, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Austin and Portland Timbers?
Austin 0-0 Portland Timbers on 05 April 2025.
What is the recent form of Austin and Portland Timbers?
Austin have taken 3 points from their last five (LLWLL), Portland Timbers 10 from theirs (WWWDL). Most recently Austin took a 1-4 defeat away at Los Angeles Galaxy and Portland Timbers a 3-1 win at home to Houston Dynamo.
How many goals are expected in Austin vs Portland Timbers?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.40 — 1.40 for Austin and 2.00 for Portland Timbers. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 62%, so its call is yes.