San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes San Diego the pick at 59% for San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
San Diego host Sporting Kansas City on 8 November 2026 at Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego. San Diego are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 59%. This matchday 34 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as San Diego - Sporting Kansas City. Kick-off is 00:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
San Diego: they come in on the back of a win, following three draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (47 scored and 58 conceded in 30 matches, 1.57 and 1.93 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 43.8 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -5.
Sporting Kansas City: they come in on the back of a draw, following four defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 55 conceded in 22 matches, 1.14 and 2.5 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 17.8 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -42.
Side by side
| Statistic | San Diego | Sporting Kansas City |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 15th |
| Goal difference | -5 | -42 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDDD | DLLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 1 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 11 | 4 / 13 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 30 | 22 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.57 / 1.93 | 1.14 / 2.5 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.17 | 0.68 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 43.8 | 17.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 59% | 19% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): San Diego one win, Sporting Kansas City none wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Sporting Kansas City 0-1 San Diego on 08 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 0.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: San Diego 43.8 versus Sporting Kansas City 17.8, a gap of 25.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 61%.
- First goal: Leans San Diego's way at 64%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards San Diego at 59%, a gap of 37 percentage points to the next outcome. San Diego's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts San Diego's way, especially at Snapdragon Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: San Diego or Sporting Kansas City?
San Diego, with an implied win probability of roughly 59%. The full split is 59% San Diego, 22% the draw and 19% Sporting Kansas City.
When and where is San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City being played?
8 November 2026 at Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between San Diego and Sporting Kansas City?
Sporting Kansas City 0-1 San Diego on 08 March 2026.
What is the recent form of San Diego and Sporting Kansas City?
San Diego have taken 6 points from their last five (WLDDD), Sporting Kansas City 1 from theirs (DLLLL). Most recently San Diego took a 1-0 win away at St. Louis City and Sporting Kansas City a 1-1 draw at home to FC Dallas.
How many goals are expected in San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.20 for San Diego and 1.40 for Sporting Kansas City. It rates over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 61%, so its call is yes.