Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes match summary and prediction — Major League Soccer
Our model makes Minnesota United FC the pick at 40% for Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
San Jose Earthquakes travel to Minnesota United FC on 8 November 2026 at Allianz Field, Sao Paulo. Minnesota United FC are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 40%. This matchday 34 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as Minnesota United FC - San Jose Earthquakes. Kick-off is 00:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Minnesota United FC: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (34 scored and 39 conceded in 26 matches, 1.31 and 1.5 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.7 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -4.
San Jose Earthquakes: they come in on the back of a win, following three draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (40 scored and 26 conceded in 21 matches, 1.9 and 1.24 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 47.0 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +8.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Minnesota United FC | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -4 | +8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDWD | WDLDD |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 6 | 6 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 26 | 21 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.31 / 1.5 | 1.9 / 1.24 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.23 | 1.86 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 60.7 | 47.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 40% | 33% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 5) | 3 | 0 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 5): Minnesota United FC three wins, San Jose Earthquakes none wins, two draws — an edge to Minnesota United FC.
- Most recent meeting: San Jose Earthquakes 0-1 Minnesota United FC on 09 March 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the five — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Minnesota United FC 60.7 versus San Jose Earthquakes 47.0, a gap of 13.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Minnesota United FC's way at 51%.
The call
The model edges towards Minnesota United FC at 40%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Minnesota United FC's way, especially at Allianz Field.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Minnesota United FC or San Jose Earthquakes?
Minnesota United FC, with an implied win probability of roughly 40%. The full split is 40% Minnesota United FC, 28% the draw and 33% San Jose Earthquakes.
When and where is Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes being played?
8 November 2026 at Allianz Field, Sao Paulo, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Minnesota United FC and San Jose Earthquakes?
San Jose Earthquakes 0-1 Minnesota United FC on 09 March 2025.
What is the recent form of Minnesota United FC and San Jose Earthquakes?
Minnesota United FC have taken 11 points from their last five (WWDWD), San Jose Earthquakes 6 from theirs (WDLDD). Most recently Minnesota United FC took a 3-1 win away at Los Angeles FC and San Jose Earthquakes a 2-1 win at home to Real Salt Lake.
How many goals are expected in Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.80 for Minnesota United FC and 1.20 for San Jose Earthquakes. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.