Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Houston Dynamo the pick at 42% for Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Houston Dynamo host St. Louis City on 8 November 2026 at Shell Energy Stadium, Houston. Houston Dynamo are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This matchday 34 fixture in Major League Soccer is listed as Houston Dynamo - St. Louis City. Kick-off is 00:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Houston Dynamo: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and three draws before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (29 scored and 27 conceded in 22 matches, 1.32 and 1.23 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.2 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +1.
St. Louis City: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 35 conceded in 24 matches, 1.33 and 1.46 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 30.8 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +10.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Houston Dynamo | St. Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 4th |
| Goal difference | +1 | +10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDDD | LLLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 1 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 8 | 4 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 22 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.32 / 1.23 | 1.33 / 1.46 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.59 | 1.33 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.2 | 30.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 42% | 28% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 2 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): Houston Dynamo two wins, St. Louis City two wins, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: St. Louis City 2-3 Houston Dynamo on 31 August 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.33 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the six — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Houston Dynamo 45.2 versus St. Louis City 30.8, a gap of 14.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 63%.
- First goal: Leans Houston Dynamo's way at 52%.
The call
The model edges towards Houston Dynamo at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Houston Dynamo's form line and home advantage back it, the goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Houston Dynamo's way, especially at Shell Energy Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Houston Dynamo or St. Louis City?
Houston Dynamo, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 42% Houston Dynamo, 30% the draw and 28% St. Louis City.
When and where is Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City being played?
8 November 2026 at Shell Energy Stadium, Houston, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Houston Dynamo and St. Louis City?
St. Louis City 2-3 Houston Dynamo on 31 August 2025.
What is the recent form of Houston Dynamo and St. Louis City?
Houston Dynamo have taken 6 points from their last five (LWDDD), St. Louis City 1 from theirs (LLLDL). Most recently Houston Dynamo took a 1-3 defeat away at Portland Timbers and St. Louis City a 0-1 defeat at home to San Diego.
How many goals are expected in Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 0.80 for Houston Dynamo and 1.60 for St. Louis City. It rates over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 63%, so its call is yes.