Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama match summary and prediction — Serie A
Our model makes Vasco DA Gama the pick at 53% for Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Chapecoense-sc face Vasco DA Gama on 14 November 2026 at Arena Condá, Chapeco. Vasco DA Gama are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 53%. This matchday 21 fixture in Serie A is listed as Chapecoense-sc - Vasco DA Gama. Kick-off is 23:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Chapecoense-sc: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 48 conceded in 28 matches, 0.89 and 1.71 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.2 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -35.
Vasco DA Gama: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (60 scored and 51 conceded in 48 matches, 1.25 and 1.06 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.6 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -7.
Side by side
| Statistic | Chapecoense-sc | Vasco DA Gama |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th | 13th |
| Goal difference | -35 | -7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWLL | WWLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 11 | 9 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 28 | 48 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.89 / 1.71 | 1.25 / 1.06 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.68 | 1.5 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 26.2 | 46.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 22% | 53% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Chapecoense-sc 26.2 versus Vasco DA Gama 46.6, a gap of 20.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Vasco DA Gama's way at 59%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Vasco DA Gama at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Vasco DA Gama's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Chapecoense-sc or Vasco DA Gama?
Vasco DA Gama, with an implied win probability of roughly 53%. The full split is 22% Chapecoense-sc, 25% the draw and 53% Vasco DA Gama.
When and where is Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
14 November 2026 at Arena Condá, Chapeco, kick-off 23:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama?
Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Chapecoense-sc on 05 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama?
Chapecoense-sc have taken 3 points from their last five (LLWLL), Vasco DA Gama 9 from theirs (WWLLW). Most recently Chapecoense-sc took a 1-2 defeat at home to Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama a 2-1 win at home to Palmeiras.
How many goals are expected in Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.20 for Chapecoense-sc and 1.80 for Vasco DA Gama. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.