Botafogo vs RB Bragantino match summary and prediction — Serie A
Our model makes Botafogo the pick at 79% for Botafogo vs RB Bragantino. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Botafogo host RB Bragantino on 12 September 2026 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro. Botafogo are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 79%. This matchday 27 fixture in Serie A is listed as Botafogo - RB Bragantino. Kick-off is 23:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Botafogo: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (58 scored and 45 conceded in 36 matches, 1.61 and 1.25 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 30.9 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -3.
RB Bragantino: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and two draws before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (36 scored and 30 conceded in 31 matches, 1.16 and 0.97 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.1 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Botafogo | RB Bragantino |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 9th |
| Goal difference | -3 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLLWL | LLWDD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 7 | 7 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 36 | 31 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.61 / 1.25 | 1.16 / 0.97 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.64 | 1.39 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 30.9 | 39.1 |
| Players unavailable | 8 | 8 |
| Model win probability | 79% | 3% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 4 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Botafogo four wins, RB Bragantino none wins, none draws — an edge to Botafogo.
- Most recent meeting: RB Bragantino 1-2 Botafogo on 21 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the four — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Botafogo 30.9 versus RB Bragantino 39.1, a gap of 8.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 12% and both teams to score at 24%.
- First goal: Leans Botafogo's way at 81%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Botafogo at 79%, a gap of 60 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Botafogo's way, especially at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Botafogo or RB Bragantino?
Botafogo, with an implied win probability of roughly 79%. The full split is 79% Botafogo, 19% the draw and 3% RB Bragantino.
When and where is Botafogo vs RB Bragantino being played?
12 September 2026 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro, kick-off 23:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Botafogo and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino 1-2 Botafogo on 21 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Botafogo and RB Bragantino?
Botafogo have taken 4 points from their last five (DLLWL), RB Bragantino 5 from theirs (LLWDD). Most recently Botafogo took a 0-0 draw at home to Palmeiras and RB Bragantino a 2-3 defeat at home to Bahia.
How many goals are expected in Botafogo vs RB Bragantino?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.40 for Botafogo and 0.80 for RB Bragantino. It rates over 2.5 goals at 12%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 24%, so its call is no.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists eight players unavailable for Botafogo and eight for RB Bragantino at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.