Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 45% for Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Vasco DA Gama travel to Gremio on 12 September 2026. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 45%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 27 fixture in Serie A is listed as Gremio - Vasco DA Gama. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Gremio: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (34 scored and 28 conceded in 27 matches, 1.26 and 1.04 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 43.5 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -6.
Vasco DA Gama: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (41 scored and 38 conceded in 32 matches, 1.28 and 1.19 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.1 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -13.
Side by side
| Statistic | Gremio | Vasco DA Gama |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 17th |
| Goal difference | -6 | -13 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWDL | DLWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 4 | 6 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 27 | 32 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.26 / 1.04 | 1.28 / 1.19 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.41 | 1.38 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 43.5 | 35.1 |
| Players unavailable | 8 | 10 |
| Model win probability | 40% | 16% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 2 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Gremio two wins, Vasco DA Gama one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Gremio on 22 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the four — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Gremio 43.5 versus Vasco DA Gama 35.1, a gap of 8.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.20, over 2.5 goals at 10% and both teams to score at 31%.
- First goal: Leans Gremio's way at 64%.
The call
The model edges towards a draw at 45%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Gremio or Vasco DA Gama?
Neither side. Our model splits it 40% Gremio, 45% the draw and 16% Vasco DA Gama, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
12 September 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Gremio and Vasco DA Gama?
Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Gremio on 22 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Gremio and Vasco DA Gama?
Gremio have taken 7 points from their last five (LWWDL), Vasco DA Gama 10 from theirs (DLWWW). Most recently Gremio took a 0-1 defeat away at Vitoria and Vasco DA Gama a 0-0 draw away at Santa Fe.
How many goals are expected in Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.20 — 0.40 for Gremio and 0.80 for Vasco DA Gama. It rates over 2.5 goals at 10%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 31%, so its call is no.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists eight players unavailable for Gremio and ten for Vasco DA Gama at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.