Santos vs Cruzeiro: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Santos host Cruzeiro with a season still short of where it should be — 13th in Serie A and unbeaten in four. Form, comparison data, head-to-head and our model's read.
The fixture at a glance
Cruzeiro travel to Santos on 13 September 2026 at Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Santos. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 50%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 27 fixture in Serie A is listed as Santos - Cruzeiro. Kick-off is 00:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Santos: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 44 conceded in 34 matches, 1.35 and 1.29 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.1 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -1. For a club of Santos' standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Cruzeiro: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (33 scored and 32 conceded in 26 matches, 1.27 and 1.23 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 65.2 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Santos | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 6th |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDWL | WLLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 5 | 8 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 34 | 26 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.35 / 1.29 | 1.27 / 1.23 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.26 | 1.46 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 58.1 | 65.2 |
| Players unavailable | 8 | 6 |
| Model win probability | 32% | 18% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Santos one win, Cruzeiro none wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Cruzeiro 0-0 Santos on 22 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Santos 58.1 versus Cruzeiro 65.2, a gap of 7.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Big club, bad season: Santos are 13th with a goal difference of -1 and unbeaten in four — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.00, over 2.5 goals at 8% and both teams to score at 33%.
- First goal: Leans Santos' way at 60%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Cruzeiro's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Santos or Cruzeiro?
Neither side. Our model splits it 32% Santos, 50% the draw and 18% Cruzeiro, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Santos vs Cruzeiro being played?
13 September 2026 at Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Santos, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Santos and Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro 0-0 Santos on 22 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Santos and Cruzeiro?
Santos have taken 10 points from their last five (WWDWL), Cruzeiro 7 from theirs (WLLDW). Most recently Santos took a 2-0 win at home to Atletico-MG and Cruzeiro a 3-1 win at home to Atletico Paranaense.
How many goals are expected in Santos vs Cruzeiro?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.00 — 0.60 for Santos and 0.40 for Cruzeiro. It rates over 2.5 goals at 8%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 33%, so its call is no.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists eight players unavailable for Santos and six for Cruzeiro at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.