Gremio vs Palmeiras: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 51% for Gremio vs Palmeiras. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Palmeiras travel to Gremio on 20 September 2026 at Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 51%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 28 fixture in Serie A is listed as Gremio - Palmeiras. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Gremio: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (34 scored and 28 conceded in 27 matches, 1.26 and 1.04 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 33.2 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -7.
Palmeiras: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following three draws before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (59 scored and 27 conceded in 36 matches, 1.64 and 0.75 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.2 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +26.
Side by side
| Statistic | Gremio | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | -7 | +26 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWWD | WWDDD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 5 | 4 / 1 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 4 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 27 | 36 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.26 / 1.04 | 1.64 / 0.75 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.41 | 2.17 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 33.2 | 58.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 23% | 25% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 3) | 0 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 3): Gremio none wins, Palmeiras two wins, one draw — an edge to Palmeiras.
- Most recent meeting: Palmeiras 2-1 Gremio on 03 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.67 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the three — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Gremio 33.2 versus Palmeiras 58.2, a gap of 24.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 14 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 24% and both teams to score at 44%.
- First goal: Leans Palmeiras' way at 50%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Palmeiras' stronger recent metrics back it, the goals line points to under 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Gremio or Palmeiras?
Neither side. Our model splits it 23% Gremio, 51% the draw and 25% Palmeiras, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Gremio vs Palmeiras being played?
20 September 2026 at Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Gremio and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras 2-1 Gremio on 03 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Gremio and Palmeiras?
Gremio have taken 7 points from their last five (LLWWD), Palmeiras 9 from theirs (WWDDD). Most recently Gremio took a 1-2 defeat at home to Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras a 2-0 win at home to Sao Paulo.
How many goals are expected in Gremio vs Palmeiras?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 0.40 for Gremio and 1.80 for Palmeiras. It rates over 2.5 goals at 24%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 44%, so its call is no.