Vitoria vs Cruzeiro: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 51% for Vitoria vs Cruzeiro. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Vitoria face Cruzeiro on 20 September 2026 at Estadio Manoel Barradas, El Salvador. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 51%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 28 fixture in Serie A is listed as Vitoria - Cruzeiro. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Vitoria: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 27 conceded in 20 matches, 1.25 and 1.35 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.3 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -12.
Cruzeiro: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (33 scored and 32 conceded in 26 matches, 1.27 and 1.23 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.0 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of 0.
Side by side
| Statistic | Vitoria | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 6th |
| Goal difference | -12 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWLLL | LWLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 7 | 7 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 20 | 26 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.25 / 1.35 | 1.27 / 1.23 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.4 | 1.46 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.3 | 55.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 24% | 26% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 3) | 0 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 3): Vitoria none wins, Cruzeiro two wins, one draw — an edge to Cruzeiro.
- Most recent meeting: Cruzeiro 3-0 Vitoria on 01 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.67 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the three — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Vitoria 45.3 versus Cruzeiro 55.0, a gap of 9.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.40, over 2.5 goals at 12% and both teams to score at 42%.
- First goal: Leans Vitoria's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Vitoria or Cruzeiro?
Neither side. Our model splits it 24% Vitoria, 51% the draw and 26% Cruzeiro, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Vitoria vs Cruzeiro being played?
20 September 2026 at Estadio Manoel Barradas, El Salvador, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Vitoria and Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro 3-0 Vitoria on 01 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Vitoria and Cruzeiro?
Vitoria have taken 4 points from their last five (DWLLL), Cruzeiro 4 from theirs (LWLLD). Most recently Vitoria took a 2-2 draw away at Mirassol and Cruzeiro a 1-2 defeat away at Santos.
How many goals are expected in Vitoria vs Cruzeiro?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.40 — 1.00 for Vitoria and 0.40 for Cruzeiro. It rates over 2.5 goals at 12%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 42%, so its call is no.