Coritiba vs Gremio: the numbers, the form and our prediction
There is barely anything between Coritiba and Gremio on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Coritiba face Gremio on 26 October 2026 at Estádio Couto Pereira, Curitiba. Coritiba are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 38%. This matchday 32 fixture in Serie A is listed as Coritiba - Gremio. Kick-off is 22:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Coritiba: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 34 conceded in 26 matches, 1.15 and 1.31 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.9 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -11.
Gremio: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (45 scored and 40 conceded in 36 matches, 1.25 and 1.11 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 32.5 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -10.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Coritiba | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 18th |
| Goal difference | -11 | -10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLLD | LDDDL |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 14 | 6 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 26 | 36 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.15 / 1.31 | 1.25 / 1.11 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.27 | 1.36 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 28.9 | 32.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 38% | 33% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Coritiba 28.9 versus Gremio 32.5, a gap of 3.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Coritiba's way at 49%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Coritiba is the nominal pick at 38%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Coritiba's way, especially at Estádio Couto Pereira.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Coritiba or Gremio?
Coritiba, with an implied win probability of roughly 38%. The full split is 38% Coritiba, 29% the draw and 33% Gremio.
When and where is Coritiba vs Gremio being played?
26 October 2026 at Estádio Couto Pereira, Curitiba, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Coritiba and Gremio?
Gremio 1-0 Coritiba on 26 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Coritiba and Gremio?
Coritiba have taken 2 points from their last five (LDLLD), Gremio 3 from theirs (LDDDL). Most recently Coritiba took a 0-1 defeat away at Atletico-MG and Gremio a 2-4 defeat at home to Cruzeiro.
How many goals are expected in Coritiba vs Gremio?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.20 for Coritiba and 1.60 for Gremio. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.