Flamengo vs Atletico-MG: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Flamengo the pick at 73% for Flamengo vs Atletico-MG. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Flamengo host Atletico-MG on 26 October 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro. Flamengo are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 73%. This matchday 32 fixture in Serie A is listed as Flamengo - Atletico-MG. Kick-off is 23:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Flamengo: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two draws before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (75 scored and 28 conceded in 38 matches, 1.97 and 0.74 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 77.3 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +36.
Atletico-MG: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (44 scored and 41 conceded in 36 matches, 1.22 and 1.14 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 63.4 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +7.
Side by side
| Statistic | Flamengo | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 6th |
| Goal difference | +36 | +7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWDWD | LWWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 2 | 8 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 4 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 38 | 36 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.97 / 0.74 | 1.22 / 1.14 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.13 | 1.5 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 77.3 | 63.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 73% | 11% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 3) | 2 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 3): Flamengo two wins, Atletico-MG none wins, one draw — an edge to Flamengo.
- Most recent meeting: Atletico-MG 0-3 Flamengo on 26 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the three — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Flamengo 77.3 versus Atletico-MG 63.4, a gap of 13.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 48%.
- First goal: Leans Flamengo's way at 72%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Flamengo at 73%, a gap of 57 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Flamengo's way, especially at Estádio do Maracanã.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Flamengo or Atletico-MG?
Flamengo, with an implied win probability of roughly 73%. The full split is 73% Flamengo, 16% the draw and 11% Atletico-MG.
When and where is Flamengo vs Atletico-MG being played?
26 October 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, kick-off 23:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
Atletico-MG 0-3 Flamengo on 26 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
Flamengo have taken 9 points from their last five (DWDWD), Atletico-MG 10 from theirs (LWWWD). Most recently Flamengo took a 0-0 draw at home to Estudiantes L.P. and Atletico-MG a 0-2 defeat away at Atletico Torque.
How many goals are expected in Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 2.00 for Flamengo and 1.20 for Atletico-MG. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 48%, so its call is no.