Mirassol vs Sao Paulo match summary and prediction — Serie A
Our model makes Mirassol the pick at 47% for Mirassol vs Sao Paulo. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Mirassol face Sao Paulo on 24 October 2026 at José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirasol. Mirassol are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This matchday 32 fixture in Serie A is listed as Mirassol - Sao Paulo. Kick-off is 19:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Mirassol: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (45 scored and 47 conceded in 40 matches, 1.12 and 1.18 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.7 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -8.
Sao Paulo: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (44 scored and 38 conceded in 38 matches, 1.16 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.2 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Mirassol | Sao Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 9th |
| Goal difference | -8 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDWW | WWLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 2 | 5 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 40 | 38 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.12 / 1.18 | 1.16 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.25 | 1.45 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 49.7 | 55.2 |
| Players unavailable | 6 | 10 |
| Model win probability | 47% | 24% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Mirassol one win, Sao Paulo one win, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Sao Paulo 1-0 Mirassol on 26 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Mirassol 49.7 versus Sao Paulo 55.2, a gap of 5.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: Sao Paulo carry the heavier absentee list, ten players to six.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Mirassol's way at 55%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Mirassol at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Mirassol's way, especially at José Maria de Campos Maia.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Mirassol or Sao Paulo?
Mirassol, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 47% Mirassol, 29% the draw and 24% Sao Paulo.
When and where is Mirassol vs Sao Paulo being played?
24 October 2026 at José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirasol, kick-off 19:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Mirassol and Sao Paulo?
Sao Paulo 1-0 Mirassol on 26 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Mirassol and Sao Paulo?
Mirassol have taken 10 points from their last five (WLDWW), Sao Paulo 9 from theirs (WWLLW). Most recently Mirassol took a 2-0 win at home to Internacional and Sao Paulo a 1-0 win at home to Vasco DA Gama.
How many goals are expected in Mirassol vs Sao Paulo?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.20 for Mirassol and 0.80 for Sao Paulo. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists six players unavailable for Mirassol and ten for Sao Paulo at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.