Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians match summary and prediction — Serie A
Corinthians travel to Vasco DA Gama needing a result to steady a season that has drifted — 16th and winless in five. Form, comparison data and the model's read, below.
Match summary
Vasco DA Gama face Corinthians on 24 October 2026 at São Januário, Rio de Janeiro. Vasco DA Gama are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This matchday 32 fixture in Serie A is listed as Vasco DA Gama - Corinthians. Kick-off is 21:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Vasco DA Gama: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (51 scored and 42 conceded in 43 matches, 1.19 and 0.98 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.6 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -7.
Corinthians: they come in on the back of a draw, following four defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (36 scored and 33 conceded in 40 matches, 0.9 and 0.82 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.6 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -7. For a club of Corinthians' standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Vasco DA Gama | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 16th |
| Goal difference | -7 | -7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWDW | DLLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 1 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 5 | 4 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 43 | 40 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.19 / 0.98 | 0.9 / 0.82 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.47 | 1.45 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 56.6 | 26.6 |
| Players unavailable | 6 | 6 |
| Model win probability | 48% | 25% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 1 | 4 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): Vasco DA Gama one win, Corinthians four wins, one draw — an edge to Corinthians.
- Most recent meeting: Corinthians 1-0 Vasco DA Gama on 26 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the six — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Vasco DA Gama 56.6 versus Corinthians 26.6, a gap of 30.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Big club, bad season: Corinthians are 16th with a goal difference of -7 and winless in five — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 47%.
- First goal: Leans Vasco DA Gama's way at 59%.
The call
The model tilts to Vasco DA Gama at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Vasco DA Gama's way, especially at São Januário.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Vasco DA Gama or Corinthians?
Vasco DA Gama, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 48% Vasco DA Gama, 27% the draw and 25% Corinthians.
When and where is Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians being played?
24 October 2026 at São Januário, Rio de Janeiro, kick-off 21:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Vasco DA Gama and Corinthians?
Corinthians 1-0 Vasco DA Gama on 26 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Vasco DA Gama and Corinthians?
Vasco DA Gama have taken 7 points from their last five (LLWDW), Corinthians 1 from theirs (DLLLL). Most recently Vasco DA Gama took a 1-3 defeat at home to Boca Juniors and Corinthians a 1-1 draw at home to Vitoria.
How many goals are expected in Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.80 for Vasco DA Gama and 1.20 for Corinthians. It rates over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 47%, so its call is no.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists six players unavailable for Vasco DA Gama and six for Corinthians at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.