Bahia vs Sao Paulo — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Bahia the pick at 37% for Bahia vs Sao Paulo. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Bahia face Sao Paulo on 29 October 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador. Bahia are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 37%. This matchday 33 fixture in Serie A is listed as Bahia - Sao Paulo. Kick-off is 00:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Bahia: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (35 scored and 37 conceded in 28 matches, 1.25 and 1.32 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.6 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +5.
Sao Paulo: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (45 scored and 39 conceded in 39 matches, 1.15 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.6 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Bahia | Sao Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 9th |
| Goal difference | +5 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLWLL | DWWLL |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 7 | 5 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 28 | 39 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.25 / 1.32 | 1.15 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.46 | 1.44 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 39.6 | 48.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 37% | 32% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 0 | 3 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Bahia none wins, Sao Paulo three wins, one draw — an edge to Sao Paulo.
- Most recent meeting: Sao Paulo 2-2 Bahia on 03 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.25 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the four — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Bahia 39.6 versus Sao Paulo 48.6, a gap of 9.0, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Bahia's way at 48%.
The call
The model edges towards Bahia at 37%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Sao Paulo's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Bahia's way, especially at Arena Fonte Nova.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Bahia or Sao Paulo?
Bahia, with an implied win probability of roughly 37%. The full split is 37% Bahia, 31% the draw and 32% Sao Paulo.
When and where is Bahia vs Sao Paulo being played?
29 October 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Bahia and Sao Paulo?
Sao Paulo 2-2 Bahia on 03 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Bahia and Sao Paulo?
Bahia have taken 4 points from their last five (DLWLL), Sao Paulo 7 from theirs (DWWLL). Most recently Bahia took a 1-1 draw away at Santos and Sao Paulo a 1-1 draw away at Mirassol.
How many goals are expected in Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 1.00 for Bahia and 0.80 for Sao Paulo. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.