Corinthians vs Mirassol: match summary, form and prediction
Corinthians host Mirassol with a season still short of where it should be — 17th in Serie A and winless in five. Form, comparison data, head-to-head and our model's read.
The fixture at a glance
Corinthians host Mirassol on 30 October 2026 at Neo Quimica Arena, Sao Paulo. Corinthians are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This matchday 33 fixture in Serie A is listed as Corinthians - Mirassol. Kick-off is 23:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Corinthians: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (38 scored and 36 conceded in 41 matches, 0.93 and 0.88 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.3 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -8. For a club of Corinthians' standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Mirassol: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 48 conceded in 41 matches, 1.12 and 1.17 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.7 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -8.
Side by side
| Statistic | Corinthians | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 15th |
| Goal difference | -8 | -8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLLL | DWLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 13 | 8 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 41 | 41 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.93 / 0.88 | 1.12 / 1.17 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.41 | 1.24 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 26.3 | 49.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 42% | 30% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Corinthians one win, Mirassol one win, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Mirassol 2-0 Corinthians on 03 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the two — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Corinthians 26.3 versus Mirassol 49.7, a gap of 23.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Big club, bad season: Corinthians are 17th with a goal difference of -8 and winless in five — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Corinthians' way at 54%.
The call
The model edges towards Corinthians at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Mirassol's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Corinthians's way, especially at Neo Quimica Arena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Corinthians or Mirassol?
Corinthians, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 42% Corinthians, 27% the draw and 30% Mirassol.
When and where is Corinthians vs Mirassol being played?
30 October 2026 at Neo Quimica Arena, Sao Paulo, kick-off 23:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Corinthians and Mirassol?
Mirassol 2-0 Corinthians on 03 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Corinthians and Mirassol?
Corinthians have taken 1 points from their last five (LDLLL), Mirassol 8 from theirs (DWLDW). Most recently Corinthians took a 2-3 defeat away at Vasco DA Gama and Mirassol a 1-1 draw at home to Sao Paulo.
How many goals are expected in Corinthians vs Mirassol?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.20 for Corinthians and 1.20 for Mirassol. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.