Coritiba vs Vitoria: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Coritiba the pick at 40% for Coritiba vs Vitoria. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Coritiba face Vitoria on 29 October 2026 at Estádio Couto Pereira, Curitiba. Coritiba are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 40%. This matchday 33 fixture in Serie A is listed as Coritiba - Vitoria. Kick-off is 22:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Coritiba: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 34 conceded in 26 matches, 1.15 and 1.31 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.9 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -11.
Vitoria: they come in on two successive draws, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (33 scored and 42 conceded in 29 matches, 1.14 and 1.45 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.9 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -11.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Coritiba | Vitoria |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 14th |
| Goal difference | -11 | -11 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLLD | DDLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 14 | 8 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 26 | 29 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.15 / 1.31 | 1.14 / 1.45 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.27 | 1.24 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 28.9 | 38.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 40% | 28% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Coritiba 28.9 versus Vitoria 38.9, a gap of 10.0, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Coritiba's way at 51%.
The call
The model edges towards Coritiba at 40%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Coritiba's way, especially at Estádio Couto Pereira.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Coritiba or Vitoria?
Coritiba, with an implied win probability of roughly 40%. The full split is 40% Coritiba, 32% the draw and 28% Vitoria.
When and where is Coritiba vs Vitoria being played?
29 October 2026 at Estádio Couto Pereira, Curitiba, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Coritiba and Vitoria?
Vitoria 4-1 Coritiba on 02 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Coritiba and Vitoria?
Coritiba have taken 2 points from their last five (LDLLD), Vitoria 5 from theirs (DDLWL). Most recently Coritiba took a 0-1 defeat away at Atletico-MG and Vitoria a 1-1 draw at home to Atletico Paranaense.
How many goals are expected in Coritiba vs Vitoria?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.20 for Coritiba and 0.80 for Vitoria. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.