Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Flamengo the pick at 46% for Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Flamengo travel to Vasco DA Gama on 29 October 2026 at São Januário, Rio de Janeiro. Flamengo are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This matchday 33 fixture in Serie A is listed as Vasco DA Gama - Flamengo. Kick-off is 23:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Vasco DA Gama: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (54 scored and 44 conceded in 44 matches, 1.23 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.8 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -6.
Flamengo: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two draws before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (75 scored and 28 conceded in 39 matches, 1.92 and 0.72 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 77.3 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +36.
Side by side
| Statistic | Vasco DA Gama | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | -6 | +36 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLWD | DWDWD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 6 | 6 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 4 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 44 | 39 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.23 / 1.0 | 1.92 / 0.72 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 56.8 | 77.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 26% | 46% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 5): Vasco DA Gama none wins, Flamengo two wins, three draws — an edge to Flamengo.
- Most recent meeting: Flamengo 2-2 Vasco DA Gama on 03 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.2 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in four of the five — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Vasco DA Gama 56.8 versus Flamengo 77.3, a gap of 20.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eleven places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Flamengo's way at 55%.
The call
The model tilts to Flamengo at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Vasco DA Gama or Flamengo?
Flamengo, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 26% Vasco DA Gama, 27% the draw and 46% Flamengo.
When and where is Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo being played?
29 October 2026 at São Januário, Rio de Janeiro, kick-off 23:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo?
Flamengo 2-2 Vasco DA Gama on 03 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo?
Vasco DA Gama have taken 7 points from their last five (WLLWD), Flamengo 9 from theirs (DWDWD). Most recently Vasco DA Gama took a 3-2 win at home to Corinthians and Flamengo a 0-0 draw at home to Estudiantes L.P.
How many goals are expected in Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.40 for Vasco DA Gama and 1.60 for Flamengo. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.