Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Vasco DA Gama the pick at 44% for Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Atletico Paranaense host Vasco DA Gama on 4 November 2026 at Arena da Baixada, Curitiba. Vasco DA Gama are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This matchday 34 fixture in Serie A is listed as Atletico Paranaense - Vasco DA Gama. Kick-off is 22:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Atletico Paranaense: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (33 scored and 30 conceded in 28 matches, 1.18 and 1.07 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.2 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +10.
Vasco DA Gama: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (55 scored and 48 conceded in 45 matches, 1.22 and 1.07 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.1 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -9.
Side by side
| Statistic | Atletico Paranaense | Vasco DA Gama |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 13th |
| Goal difference | +10 | -9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLWD | LWLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 8 | 6 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 28 | 45 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.18 / 1.07 | 1.22 / 1.07 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.46 | 1.47 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 44.2 | 46.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 32% | 44% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Atletico Paranaense none wins, Vasco DA Gama two wins, none draws — an edge to Vasco DA Gama.
- Most recent meeting: Vasco DA Gama 1-0 Atletico Paranaense on 10 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Atletico Paranaense 44.2 versus Vasco DA Gama 46.1, a gap of 1.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Vasco DA Gama's way at 50%.
The call
The model edges towards Vasco DA Gama at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Vasco DA Gama's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Atletico Paranaense or Vasco DA Gama?
Vasco DA Gama, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 32% Atletico Paranaense, 24% the draw and 44% Vasco DA Gama.
When and where is Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
4 November 2026 at Arena da Baixada, Curitiba, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama?
Vasco DA Gama 1-0 Atletico Paranaense on 10 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama?
Atletico Paranaense have taken 5 points from their last five (LDLWD), Vasco DA Gama 6 from theirs (LWLLW). Most recently Atletico Paranaense took a 0-2 defeat away at Gremio and Vasco DA Gama a 1-4 defeat at home to Flamengo.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.40 for Atletico Paranaense and 1.60 for Vasco DA Gama. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.