Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Mirassol the pick at 40% for Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Mirassol travel to Chapecoense-sc on 3 November 2026 at Arena Condá, Chapeco. Mirassol are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 40%. This matchday 34 fixture in Serie A is listed as Chapecoense-sc - Mirassol. Kick-off is 22:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Chapecoense-sc: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (24 scored and 46 conceded in 27 matches, 0.89 and 1.7 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.5 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -34.
Mirassol: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 50 conceded in 42 matches, 1.1 and 1.19 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.7 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -8.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Chapecoense-sc | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th | 16th |
| Goal difference | -34 | -8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLLL | LDWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 13 | 4 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 27 | 42 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.89 / 1.7 | 1.1 / 1.19 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.7 | 1.21 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 26.5 | 49.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 34% | 40% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Chapecoense-sc 26.5 versus Mirassol 49.7, a gap of 23.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Mirassol's way at 50%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Mirassol at 40%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Mirassol's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Chapecoense-sc or Mirassol?
Mirassol, with an implied win probability of roughly 40%. The full split is 34% Chapecoense-sc, 26% the draw and 40% Mirassol.
When and where is Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol being played?
3 November 2026 at Arena Condá, Chapeco, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Chapecoense-sc and Mirassol?
Mirassol 1-1 Chapecoense-sc on 10 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Chapecoense-sc and Mirassol?
Chapecoense-sc have taken 3 points from their last five (LWLLL), Mirassol 5 from theirs (LDWLD). Most recently Chapecoense-sc took a 0-3 defeat away at RB Bragantino and Mirassol a 0-2 defeat away at Corinthians.
How many goals are expected in Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.20 for Chapecoense-sc and 1.00 for Mirassol. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.