Cruzeiro vs Bahia: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Cruzeiro the pick at 63% for Cruzeiro vs Bahia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Bahia travel to Cruzeiro on 6 November 2026 at Estádio Mineirão, Belo Horizonte. Cruzeiro are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 63%. This matchday 34 fixture in Serie A is listed as Cruzeiro - Bahia. Kick-off is 00:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Cruzeiro: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one win and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (52 scored and 43 conceded in 39 matches, 1.33 and 1.1 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 66.5 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +6.
Bahia: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (39 scored and 40 conceded in 30 matches, 1.3 and 1.33 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.8 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +6.
Side by side
| Statistic | Cruzeiro | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 6th |
| Goal difference | +6 | +6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWLW | WDLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 6 | 5 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 39 | 30 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.33 / 1.1 | 1.3 / 1.33 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.59 | 1.5 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 66.5 | 49.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 63% | 18% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 2 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Cruzeiro two wins, Bahia one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro on 10 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.25 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Cruzeiro 66.5 versus Bahia 49.8, a gap of 16.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans Cruzeiro's way at 65%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Cruzeiro at 63%, a gap of 44 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Cruzeiro's way, especially at Estádio Mineirão.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Cruzeiro or Bahia?
Cruzeiro, with an implied win probability of roughly 63%. The full split is 63% Cruzeiro, 19% the draw and 18% Bahia.
When and where is Cruzeiro vs Bahia being played?
6 November 2026 at Estádio Mineirão, Belo Horizonte, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Cruzeiro and Bahia?
Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro on 10 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Cruzeiro and Bahia?
Cruzeiro have taken 12 points from their last five (WWWLW), Bahia 7 from theirs (WDLWL). Most recently Cruzeiro took a 1-0 win away at Atletico-MG and Bahia a 3-2 win at home to Sao Paulo.
How many goals are expected in Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 2.00 for Cruzeiro and 1.80 for Bahia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.