Flamengo vs Gremio — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Flamengo the pick at 77% for Flamengo vs Gremio. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Flamengo host Gremio on 4 November 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro. Flamengo are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 77%. This matchday 34 fixture in Serie A is listed as Flamengo - Gremio. Kick-off is 22:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Flamengo: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (82 scored and 31 conceded in 41 matches, 2.0 and 0.76 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 78.3 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +40.
Gremio: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (48 scored and 40 conceded in 38 matches, 1.26 and 1.05 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.9 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -7.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Flamengo | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 15th |
| Goal difference | +40 | -7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDWD | WWLDD |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 3 | 7 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 41 | 38 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.0 / 0.76 | 1.26 / 1.05 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.15 | 1.45 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 78.3 | 49.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 77% | 8% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 2 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Flamengo two wins, Gremio one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Gremio 0-1 Flamengo on 10 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.75 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the four — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Flamengo 78.3 versus Gremio 49.9, a gap of 28.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 14 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Flamengo's way at 78%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Flamengo at 77%, a gap of 63 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Flamengo's way, especially at Estádio do Maracanã.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Flamengo or Gremio?
Flamengo, with an implied win probability of roughly 77%. The full split is 77% Flamengo, 15% the draw and 8% Gremio.
When and where is Flamengo vs Gremio being played?
4 November 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Flamengo and Gremio?
Gremio 0-1 Flamengo on 10 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Flamengo and Gremio?
Flamengo have taken 11 points from their last five (WWDWD), Gremio 8 from theirs (WWLDD). Most recently Flamengo took a 4-1 win away at Vasco DA Gama and Gremio a 2-0 win at home to Atletico Paranaense.
How many goals are expected in Flamengo vs Gremio?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 2.40 for Flamengo and 1.20 for Gremio. It rates over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.