Sao Paulo vs Corinthians — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Corinthians travel to Sao Paulo needing a result to steady a season that has drifted — 17th and still looking for rhythm. Form, comparison data and the model's read, below.
Match summary
Sao Paulo host Corinthians on 5 November 2026 at Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo. Sao Paulo are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This matchday 34 fixture in Serie A is listed as Sao Paulo - Corinthians. Kick-off is 00:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Sao Paulo: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (47 scored and 42 conceded in 40 matches, 1.18 and 1.05 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.3 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of 0.
Corinthians: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (40 scored and 36 conceded in 42 matches, 0.95 and 0.86 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.8 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -6. For a club of Corinthians' standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Sao Paulo | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 17th |
| Goal difference | 0 | -6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWWL | WLDLL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 7 | 7 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 40 | 42 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.18 / 1.05 | 0.95 / 0.86 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.4 | 1.45 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 48.3 | 36.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 45% | 29% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 1 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Sao Paulo one win, Corinthians two wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Corinthians 3-2 Sao Paulo on 10 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.75 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the four — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Sao Paulo 48.3 versus Corinthians 36.8, a gap of 11.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Big club, bad season: Corinthians are 17th with a goal difference of -6 and no settled run of results — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Sao Paulo's way at 53%.
The call
The model edges towards Sao Paulo at 45%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Sao Paulo's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Sao Paulo's way, especially at Estadio Do MorumBIS.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Sao Paulo or Corinthians?
Sao Paulo, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 45% Sao Paulo, 26% the draw and 29% Corinthians.
When and where is Sao Paulo vs Corinthians being played?
5 November 2026 at Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Sao Paulo and Corinthians?
Corinthians 3-2 Sao Paulo on 10 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Sao Paulo and Corinthians?
Sao Paulo have taken 7 points from their last five (LDWWL), Corinthians 4 from theirs (WLDLL). Most recently Sao Paulo took a 2-3 defeat away at Bahia and Corinthians a 2-0 win at home to Mirassol.
How many goals are expected in Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 0.80 for Sao Paulo and 1.40 for Corinthians. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.