Vitoria vs Fluminense: the numbers, the form and our prediction
There is barely anything between Vitoria and Fluminense on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Vitoria host Fluminense on 6 November 2026 at Barradao, Salvador. Fluminense are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 37%. This matchday 34 fixture in Serie A is listed as Vitoria - Fluminense. Kick-off is 23:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Vitoria: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (33 scored and 44 conceded in 30 matches, 1.1 and 1.47 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.4 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -13.
Fluminense: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (57 scored and 48 conceded in 47 matches, 1.21 and 1.02 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 47.5 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +10.
Side by side
| Statistic | Vitoria | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 4th |
| Goal difference | -13 | +10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDDLW | WLWLL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 6 | 6 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 30 | 47 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.1 / 1.47 | 1.21 / 1.02 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.2 | 1.62 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 38.4 | 47.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 35% | 37% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 2 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Vitoria two wins, Fluminense one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Fluminense 2-2 Vitoria on 09 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.25 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the four — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Vitoria 38.4 versus Fluminense 47.5, a gap of 9.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Vitoria's way at 47%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Fluminense is the nominal pick at 37%, but the three results sit close to even. Fluminense's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Vitoria or Fluminense?
Fluminense, with an implied win probability of roughly 37%. The full split is 35% Vitoria, 27% the draw and 37% Fluminense.
When and where is Vitoria vs Fluminense being played?
6 November 2026 at Barradao, Salvador, kick-off 23:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Vitoria and Fluminense?
Fluminense 2-2 Vitoria on 09 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Vitoria and Fluminense?
Vitoria have taken 5 points from their last five (LDDLW), Fluminense 6 from theirs (WLWLL). Most recently Vitoria took a 0-2 defeat away at Coritiba and Fluminense a 2-1 win at home to Internacional.
How many goals are expected in Vitoria vs Fluminense?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.80 for Vitoria and 1.20 for Fluminense. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.