Coritiba vs Santos: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Santos travel to Coritiba needing a result to steady a season that has drifted — 9th and three games without a win. Form, comparison data and the model's read, below.
The fixture at a glance
Santos travel to Coritiba on 18 November 2026. Santos are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 54%. This matchday 35 fixture in Serie A is listed as Coritiba - Santos. Kick-off is 22:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Coritiba: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 36 conceded in 29 matches, 1.1 and 1.24 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.6 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -11.
Santos: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (64 scored and 56 conceded in 47 matches, 1.36 and 1.19 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.9 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +1. For a club of Santos' standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Coritiba | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 9th |
| Goal difference | -11 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLLD | LDDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 4 | 5 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 29 | 47 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.1 / 1.24 | 1.36 / 1.19 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.24 | 1.45 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.6 | 41.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 23% | 54% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 3) | 1 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 3): Coritiba one win, Santos one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Santos 0-3 Coritiba on 17 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.67 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the three — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Coritiba 35.6 versus Santos 41.9, a gap of 6.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Big club, bad season: Santos are 9th with a goal difference of +1 and three games without a win — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Santos' way at 57%.
The call
The model tilts to Santos at 54%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Coritiba or Santos?
Santos, with an implied win probability of roughly 54%. The full split is 23% Coritiba, 23% the draw and 54% Santos.
When and where is Coritiba vs Santos being played?
18 November 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Coritiba and Santos?
Santos 0-3 Coritiba on 17 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Coritiba and Santos?
Coritiba have taken 4 points from their last five (LWLLD), Santos 5 from theirs (LDDWL). Most recently Coritiba took a 0-1 defeat away at Internacional and Santos a 1-2 defeat away at RB Bragantino.
How many goals are expected in Coritiba vs Santos?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.20 for Coritiba and 1.20 for Santos. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.